Despite media predictions of disaster from lower Ukraine and Russian wheat crops, predictions here are optimistic ... https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
To quote ...
Global cereal stocks in 2021/22 up; early prospects point to higher cereal production in 2022
Release date: 04/03/2022
"FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2021 has been raised by 2.2 million tonnes and is now pegged at 2 796 million tonnes, 0.7 percent higher on a yearly basis. This month’s upward revision stems from higher estimates for world maize and rice production, while the global production estimate for sorghum has been lowered, moderating the expected monthly aggregate upturn. Incorporating these changes, the global coarse grains production forecast now stands at 1 501 million tonnes, 1.2 percent higher year-on-year. The bulk of the increase rests on higher maize production in the European Union (EU) and India, which more than offsets the estimated low coarse grains production in the Sudan. The forecast for world wheat production remains unchanged this month at 775.4 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in Australia’s output, reinforcing the record level, which was counterbalanced by minor downgrades to the estimates for the EU, Iraq and Paraguay. Following a 2.2 million tonne upward revision, world rice production in 2021 is now anticipated to reach 519.3 million tonnes, up 0.7 percent from 2020 and marking a new peak. Compared to February’s expectations, the increase primarily mirrors more buoyant output prospects for India, where official assessments indicate a record main-crop harvest attained this season. This revision, alongside an upward adjustment to Madagascar’s output estimate, overshadows a downgrade for the United Republic of Tanzania. "
Re the Ukraine war ...
"This forecast does not yet assume potential impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on trade flows from Ukraine and the Russian Federation. For the remainder of the 2021/22 season (March 1 – June 30), Ukraine is forecast to export approximately 6 million tonnes of wheat and 16 million tonnes of maize, while the Russian Federation is forecast to export approximately 8 million tonnes of wheat and 2.5 million tonnes of maize. FAO is closely monitoring the developments and will assess the impacts on the 2021/22 global cereal trade in due course. World wheat trade in 2021/22 (July/June) is currently forecast at a record 194 million tonnes, 2.5 percent (4.8 million tonnes) above the 2020/21 level. "
Uncertainties remain with fuel costs and fertiliser supply but so far the figures are hardly the stuff of doom.
Global crops holding up despite Ukraine war
Re: Global crops holding up despite Ukraine war
Wheat crop estimates from the USDA ...
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